Trevor Bayne 2015 Fantasy NASCAR Preview
In 2015 Trevor Bayne will rise from the Nationwide ranks and will drive the #6 Roush Fenway Racing entry full-time. Trevor Bayne is by no means an unknown driver in NASCAR’s top series. Since 2011 he’s driven in 58 races for the Wood Brothers. The #21 is essentially a Roush car so his performances in those races should carry fantasy weight. While he drove for the Wood Brothers he had one career highlight and that was his 2011 Daytona 500 win in his second race. In his 56 races following that event he finished in the top ten just two more times and his most recent top ten was at Talladega in May 2012. His one top ten not at a restrictor plate track was at Las Vegas in March 2012.
2014 was a tough year for Bayne. He raced in 11 races and had a 32.3 average finish. It was by far his worst season and he only had four results in the top twenty and those finishes were either 19th or 20th. His average result over the last five races of the season was 38.6. I find that very troubling.
One elephant in the room that effects his fantasy value is his team. Roush Fenway Racing lacked speed in 2014 and they were only really competitive at tracks where the race is in the driver’s hands. My personal theory for why they were behind is because I don’t think their R&D department adapts to rule changes as quickly as the other “power teams”. I think the ride height rule really threw them a curve ball. The problem certainly wasn’t their engines because they have the same ponies under the hood that Penske Racing has. In 2015 I think Roush Fenway Racing will bring better cars to the track. NASCAR is a cyclical sport and they won’t stay down forever.
Strengths – Look for Trevor Bayne to have his best days at high-speed intermediate tracks. He should be able to sneak in some top tens at those venues but his likely result should typically be between the mid-teens and the low-twenties. Historically these venues have been Roush Fenway Racing’s strength.
Weaknesses – Consistency will likely be a problem for Trevor Bayne. In his 11 races last year he only finished on the lead lap twice. In 36.3% percent of his races last season he was involved in an accident that ended his race early.
Track Type Fantasy Value Key = Elite > High > Moderate > Low
Intermediate Track Fantasy Value – Moderate, I expect Trevor Bayne to get his best results next season at high-speed intermediate tracks. As I said above I think he might be able to sneak in some top tens but look for his typical results to be between the mid-teens and mid-twenties. In his first four races on this track type last season he finished in either 19th or 20th.
Read his teammates fantasy NASCAR previews: Greg Biffle and Ricky Stenhouse Jr.
Flat Track Fantasy Value – Low, In the Sprint Cup Series on this track type Bayne has only raced at Indy and Phoenix. It should be noted his lone Phoenix start was a 40th place finish in 2011. At Indy last season Bayne finished 43rd due to an accident. In his first three Indy races he had a 25th place average finish. In 2013 and 2014 in the Nationwide Series at Phoenix Bayne finished in the top ten every race and had a 6.75 average finish. In the lower series at Loudon in the last two years he’s recorded finishes of 6th and 9th.
Check out our Trevor Bayne fantasy NASCAR Portal Page
Short Track Fantasy Value – Low, During his tenure with the Wood Brothers he rarely went short track racing. Between the three short tracks he’s only made two career starts and they were both in 2011. In his lone Martinsville start in spring 2011 he finished 35th. In his lone Bristol start he finished 34th. It’s kind of surprising but at Richmond in the top series he has zero career starts. Last season in the lower series at Richmond he had results of 11th and 15th.
Restrictor Plate Track Fantasy Value – Moderate, Trevor Bayne earned his way to fame following his 2011 Daytona 500 win. Because of that win he’s many people’s “forever sleeper” pick on this track type. Since he won that race he hasn’t done anything good at Daytona. In his last 7 Daytona races he has a best finish of 20th and a 31.57 average finish. At Talladega his track record is just as ugly. His average finish at that “Wild Card” venue is 27.9. In half his starts there he’s finished 32nd or worse.
Are you wondering why I gave him Moderate fantasy value? It’s because Roush Fenway Racing makes very fast cars on this track type and I think he’ll be able to sneak in some good finishes.
Road Course Track Fantasy Value – Low, Roush Fenway cars have raced well at road courses but Trevor Bayne strikes me as being just as much of a road course ringer as Ricky Stenhouse Jr. When he visits these venues a good day would probably be around a 20th place result. His average finish on this track type in the Nationwide Series last year was 16.3. His two results minus his Elkhart Lake wreck were finishes of 9th and 13th.
